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    林维佳, 韩方正. 肝硬化腹水并发自发性细菌性腹膜炎危险因素分析及诊断模型的建立[J]. 徐州医科大学学报, 2020, 40(12): 919-923. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2020.12.013
    引用本文: 林维佳, 韩方正. 肝硬化腹水并发自发性细菌性腹膜炎危险因素分析及诊断模型的建立[J]. 徐州医科大学学报, 2020, 40(12): 919-923. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2020.12.013
    Analysis of risk factors of cirrhotic ascites accompanied by spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and establish the diagnostic model[J]. Journal of Xuzhou Medical University, 2020, 40(12): 919-923. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2020.12.013
    Citation: Analysis of risk factors of cirrhotic ascites accompanied by spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and establish the diagnostic model[J]. Journal of Xuzhou Medical University, 2020, 40(12): 919-923. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2020.12.013

    肝硬化腹水并发自发性细菌性腹膜炎危险因素分析及诊断模型的建立

    Analysis of risk factors of cirrhotic ascites accompanied by spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and establish the diagnostic model

    • 摘要: 目的 分析肝硬化腹水患者并发自发性细菌性腹膜炎(SBP)的危险因素,并建立诊断模型.方法 选取2014年1月—2018年12月在徐州医科大学附属医院住院的肝硬化腹水患者191例,分为SBP组(41例)及非SBP组(150例),分析患者的一般资料、合并症、临床症状和体征及实验室指标.采用单因素分析和Logistic回归分析法筛选肝硬化腹水患者并发SBP的相关危险因素,并建立Logistic回归模型,通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)验证诊断模型的效能.结果 单因素分析结果显示腹痛、发热、血总白蛋白、血钠、血红细胞计数、血清-腹水白蛋白梯度、血肌酐、血白细胞计数、血中性粒细胞百分比、腹水白细胞计数、腹水多形核细胞(PMN)百分比与肝硬化腹水患者并发SBP具有相关性(P<0.05).多因素分析结果显示发热(OR=4.282,95%CI:1.425~12.870)、腹水PMN百分比(OR=1.080,95%CI:1.053~1.107)与肝硬化腹水患者并发SBP具有显著相关性(P=0.01,P<0.001).根据多因素分析结果建立肝硬化腹水患者并发SBP诊断模型,模型的AUC为0.885,最佳的截断值为0.309.结论 发热、腹水PMN百分比为肝硬化腹水患者并发SBP的独立危险因素,据此建立的诊断模型对肝硬化腹水患者并发SBP的预测具有较高的准确率,为今后临床早期预测和治疗SBP患者提供参考.

       

      Abstract: ob<x>jective To analyze the risk factors of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) in patients with cirrhosis and ascites, and establish predictive models. Methods Totally 191 patients with cirrhosis and ascites complicated with SBP were enrolled from January 2014 to December 2018 in Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University; 41 patients with SBP were SBP group and 150 patients without SBP were non-SBP group. General patient information, comorbidities, clinical signs and symptoms, and laboratory indicators were collected to screen out relevant influencing factors of SBP. Univariate analysis and Logistic regression analysis were used to screen related risk factors of SBP in patients with cirrhotic ascites, and establish the diagnostic model. The effectiveness of the diagnostic model was verified by the area under the subject operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results Univariate analysis showed that abdominal pain, fever, total serum albumin, serum sodium, red blood cell count, serum-ascites albumin gradient, creatinine, white blood cell count, percentage of neutrophils, ascites white blood cell count and ascites polymorphonuclear percentage ( PMN%) were correlated with SBP in cirrhotic ascites (P < 0. 05). Multivariate analysis showed that fever (OR= 4.282, 95%ci: 1.425~12.870), ascites PMN% (OR= 1.080, 95%ci: 1.053~1.107) were significantly correlated with SBP in patients with cirrhotic ascites (P=0.01, P< 0.001). A diagnostic model was constructed ba<x>sed on fever and ascites PMN%. The SBP diagnostic model for cirrhotic ascites was established ba<x>sed on the results of multi-factor analysis. The AUC of the model is 0.885, and the optimal cut-off value is 0.309. Conclusion Ascites PMN% and fever are independent risk factors of SBP in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. The diagnostic model established on this basis has a high accuracy rate for predicting SBP in patients with cirrhotic ascites, providing a reference for early clinical diagnostic and treatment of SBP patients in the future.

       

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