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    李雪, 李士红, 姚晏, 苑菁菁. 长期抗凝治疗老年患者胃癌切除术后出血风险预测模型的建立[J]. 徐州医科大学学报, 2022, 42(1): 67-71. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2022.01.014
    引用本文: 李雪, 李士红, 姚晏, 苑菁菁. 长期抗凝治疗老年患者胃癌切除术后出血风险预测模型的建立[J]. 徐州医科大学学报, 2022, 42(1): 67-71. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2022.01.014
    Establishment of prediction model of postoperative bleeding risk in elderly patients with long-term anticoagulant gastric cancer[J]. Journal of Xuzhou Medical University, 2022, 42(1): 67-71. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2022.01.014
    Citation: Establishment of prediction model of postoperative bleeding risk in elderly patients with long-term anticoagulant gastric cancer[J]. Journal of Xuzhou Medical University, 2022, 42(1): 67-71. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2022.01.014

    长期抗凝治疗老年患者胃癌切除术后出血风险预测模型的建立

    Establishment of prediction model of postoperative bleeding risk in elderly patients with long-term anticoagulant gastric cancer

    • 摘要: 目的:分析长期服用抗凝药物的老年患者胃癌切除术后大出血的风险因素并建立预测模型,为临床及护理工作提供参考。方法:回顾性分析30例胃切除术后出血(观察组)和200例胃切除术后未出血或少出血的老年胃癌患者(对照组)的临床资料。Logistic回归分析患者术后出血的危险因素,建立出血风险预测模型。采用ROC曲线评估风险预测模型的预测性能。比较观察组和对照组术后临床表现的差异。结果:多因素分析显示,血小板<100×109/L,TNM分期Ⅲ期和腹部感染是长期抗凝老年患者胃癌切除术后出血的独立危险因素,据此建立的出血风险模型的AUC为0.753(95% CI:0.692~0.807),灵敏度为60.00%,特异性为79.00%。观察组患者术后出现呕血、黑便及引流液异常临床表现的比例显著高于对照组(P<0.05)。结论:血小板水平较低、晚期患者及术后腹部感染是长期抗凝的老年患者胃癌切除术后大出血的独立危险因素,对该类患者临床护理人员需结合临床表现警惕术后出血的发生。

       

      Abstract: ob<x>jective:To establish and verify the risk prediction model of postoperative bleeding in elderly gastric cancer patients with long-term anticoagulation, and to provide reference for nursing work. Methods:The clinical data of 30 gastric cancer patients with bleeding after gastrectomy and 200 elderly gastric cancer patients without bleeding after gastrectomy were analyzed, retrospectively.Statistical methods were used to analyze the risk factors of postoperative bleeding and the prediction model was established. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the risk prediction model. The difference of postoperative clinical manifestations between the case group and the control group were compared. Results: Multivariate analysis showed that platelets<100×109/L, TNM stage III and abdominal infection were independent risk factors for postoperative bleeding in elderly patients with gastric cancer. The AUC of the established bleeding risk prediction model was 0.753 (95% CI:0.692~ 0.807), with sensitivity of 60.00% and specificity of 79.00%. The incidence of hematemesis, black stool and abnormal drainage fluid in the case group was significantly higher than that in the control group (P < 0.05).Conclusion: Low platelet level, advanced patients and postoperative abdominal infection were independent risk factors of postoperative bleeding in elderly patients with long-term anticoagulant gastric cancer. For this kind of patient,clinical nurses need to be alert for the occurrence of postoperative bleeding according to the clinical feature .

       

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