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    李波, 张琴, 郭堂军, 张敬耀, 朱玉辐. 生长激素型垂体腺瘤经鼻蝶入路术后长期疗效的列线图预测模型的构建和验证[J]. 徐州医科大学学报, 2022, 42(9): 641-647. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2022.09.004
    引用本文: 李波, 张琴, 郭堂军, 张敬耀, 朱玉辐. 生长激素型垂体腺瘤经鼻蝶入路术后长期疗效的列线图预测模型的构建和验证[J]. 徐州医科大学学报, 2022, 42(9): 641-647. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2022.09.004
    Development and internal validation of nomogram prediction model to estimate the long-term efficacy of pituitary GH adenoma patients following Endoscopic Transsphenoidal Surgery[J]. Journal of Xuzhou Medical University, 2022, 42(9): 641-647. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2022.09.004
    Citation: Development and internal validation of nomogram prediction model to estimate the long-term efficacy of pituitary GH adenoma patients following Endoscopic Transsphenoidal Surgery[J]. Journal of Xuzhou Medical University, 2022, 42(9): 641-647. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2022.09.004

    生长激素型垂体腺瘤经鼻蝶入路术后长期疗效的列线图预测模型的构建和验证

    Development and internal validation of nomogram prediction model to estimate the long-term efficacy of pituitary GH adenoma patients following Endoscopic Transsphenoidal Surgery

    • 摘要: 目的 为了分析和预测垂体生长激素腺瘤患者经蝶窦神经内镜手术后长期的缓解情况,探讨影响术后缓解的因素,并基于这些因素建立Nomogram预测模型。方法 收集2015年1月- 2020年6月经蝶窦内镜手术治疗的96例垂体生长激素腺瘤患者的临床资料。运用LASSO回归分析筛选最佳预测因子,将风险预测因子进行多因素Logistic回归分析进一步筛选风险预测因素。根据风险预测因子构建Nomogram预测模型。采用受试者工作曲线(ROC)曲线下面积评价模型的鉴别性能,采用Bootstrap法进行模型内部验证,计算一致性指数(C-index)以评估模型区分度;绘制校准曲线用于评估模型的校准度。最后决策曲线分析用来评估模型的最佳预测范围。结果 共连续纳入96例垂体生长激素腺瘤患者,在最后的随访中,其中61例(63.5%)达到缓解标准,35例(36.5%)未缓解。术前GHOR=1.262,95%CI(1.068 ,1.491),p=0.006,Knosp3-4级OR=8.79,95%CI(2.025 ,37.467),p=0.004,术前IGF-1OR=1.009,95%CI(1.002 ,1.015),p=0.008,腺瘤最大直径(MPAD)OR=1.124,95%CI(1.014,1.245),p=0.026是垂体生长激素腺瘤术后未缓解的独立预测因子。构建的Nomogram预测模型预测垂体生长激素腺瘤患者术后未缓解的ROC曲线下面积为0.89795%CI(0.828,0.967);经内部验证,该模型的C-index为0.925;校准曲线显示该模型结果与实际结果的一致性良好。同时DCA曲线显示该模型在临床工作中是有用的。结论 本研究基于这些重要的预测因素,我们构建了垂体生长激素腺瘤患者术后未缓解的nomogram预测,该模型有助于临床医生预测术后缓解情况,指导患者的随访计划,并制定相应的精确治疗方案。

       

      Abstract: ob<x>jective In order to analyze and predict the long-term remission of patients with pituitary growth hormone adenoma after endoscopic transsphenoidal surgery, explore the factors affecting the postoperative remission, and establish nomogram prediction model ba<x>sed on these factors. Methods The clinical data of 96 patients with pituitary growth hormone adenoma treated by endoscopic sinus surgery from January 2015 to June 2020 were collected. The best predictors were screened by lasso regression analysis, and the risk predictors were further screened by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Nomogram prediction model is constructed according to risk prediction factors. The area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the discrimination performance of the model, the bootstrap method was used to verify the model, and the consistency index (c-index) was calculated to evaluate the discrimination of the model; The calibration curve is drawn to evaluate the calibration degree of the model. Finally, the decision curve analysis is used to evaluate the best prediction range of the model. Results A total of 96 consecutive patients with pituitary growth hormone adenoma were included. In the final follow-up, 61 (63.5%) met the remission standard and 35 (36.5%) did not. Preoperative GH or = 1.262,95% CI (1.068, 1.491), P = 0.006, knosp3-4 or = 8.79,95% CI (2.025, 37.467), P = 0.004, preoperative IGF-1 or = 1.009,95% CI (1.002, 1.015), P = 0.008, maximum diameter of adenoma (MPAD) or = 1.124,95% CI (1.014, 1.245), P = 0.026 were independent predictors of unresponsive postoperative vertical growth hormone adenoma. The nomogram prediction model predicted that the area under the ROC curve of unresponsive patients with pituitary growth hormone adenoma was 0.897 95% CI (0.828, 0.967); Through internal verification, the c-index of the model is 0.925; The calibration curve shows that the model results are in good agreement with the actual results. At the same time, DCA curve shows that the model is useful in clinical work. Conclusion In this study, ba<x>sed on these important predictors, we constructed nomogram prediction of non- remission in patients with pituitary growth hormone adenoma. The model is helpful for clinicians to predict postoperative remission, guide patients’ follow-up plan, and formulate corresponding accurate treatment plan.

       

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