Abstract:
ob<x>jective A retrospective analysis of the influencing factors of mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumoniae (Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia,MPP) treated with multiple bronchoscopic lavage therapy and construct a prediction model. Methods Clinical data of 203 children with MPP undergoing bronchoscopic lavage in our hospital from June 2018 to June 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. All children were divided into the single lavage group (150 cases) and the multiple lavage group (53 cases) according to the times of bronchoscopic lavage therapy. Compare the differences between the two groups in general condition, clinical symptoms, laboratory examination, complications and so on, analyze the influencing factors of MPP multiple lavage, and construct a prediction model. Results ①Univariate analysis showed that there were no significant differences in gender, age, other infections, number of lung lobes involved in inflammation, season of onset, WBC(White Blood Cells) and CKMB(Creative Kinase Isoenzyme) between the two groups (P>0.05). In the two groups, pleural effusion, extrapulmonary complications, fever before admission, duration of cough, maximum body temperature before admission, Mean d1-d3 body temperature (Tmean) after admission, 5 days ≥ macrolide antibiotics before admission, FDP(Fibrinogen degradation products), D-dimers (D-Dimer), CRP (C-reactive protein), ALT (alanine aminotransferase), ALB (serum albumin), PA (serum prealbumin) indexes were statistically different(P<0.05). Further Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that increased Tmean, FDP、D-dimers and ALT increased, and ALB decreased were risk factors for the times of bronchoscopic lavage therapy and the accuracy of prediction was 89.6%. ②According to the results of Multivariate regression analysis, the area under the curve of joint predictors was 0.902, 34.8815 was the critical point, the sensitivity was 0.762, and the specificity was 0.885. ③According to the analysis of the decision curve, the total(combined predictor) model is the best model to predict the times of bronchial lavage in children. Conclusion Bronchoscopy lavage is an effective method for the treatment of MPP. Early identification of risk factors that may require multiple lavage treatment is of positive significance for rational communication between doctors and patients and improvement of prognosis.