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    周蒙, 孟令建, 刘琳, 吴铭, 崔亚. 支原体肺炎行多次支气管镜下灌洗的影响因素分析及预测模型构建[J]. 徐州医科大学学报, 2021, 41(8): 611-615.
    引用本文: 周蒙, 孟令建, 刘琳, 吴铭, 崔亚. 支原体肺炎行多次支气管镜下灌洗的影响因素分析及预测模型构建[J]. 徐州医科大学学报, 2021, 41(8): 611-615.
    Influencing Factors of Multiple Bronchoscopic Lavage Therapy in Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia and Construction of Prediction Model[J]. Journal of Xuzhou Medical University, 2021, 41(8): 611-615.
    Citation: Influencing Factors of Multiple Bronchoscopic Lavage Therapy in Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia and Construction of Prediction Model[J]. Journal of Xuzhou Medical University, 2021, 41(8): 611-615.

    支原体肺炎行多次支气管镜下灌洗的影响因素分析及预测模型构建

    Influencing Factors of Multiple Bronchoscopic Lavage Therapy in Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia and Construction of Prediction Model

    • 摘要: 目的 回顾性分析支原体肺炎(Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia,MPP2018年6月至2020年6月入住我院儿科的203例行支气管镜下灌洗治疗的MPP患儿的临床资料,根据支气管镜下灌洗次数分单次灌洗组(150例)及多次灌洗组(53例)。比较两组患儿在一般情况、临床症状、实验室检查、合并症等方面的差异,分析MPP多次灌洗的影响因素,并构建预测模型。结果 ①单因素分析发现:两组患儿在性别、年龄、合并其它感染、炎症累及肺叶数、发病季节、WBC(白细胞)、CKMB(肌酸激酶同工酶)上无统计学差异(P>0.05);在合并胸腔积液、合并肺外并发症、入院前发热、咳嗽持续时间、入院前最高体温、入院后d1-d3体温平均值(Tmean)、入院前使用大环内酯类抗生素≥5天、FDP(纤维蛋白原降解产物)、D-二聚体(D-Dimer)、CRP(C反应蛋白)、ALT(谷丙转氨酶)、ALB(血清白蛋白)、PA(血清前白蛋白)、LDH(乳酸脱氢酶)指标上具有统计学差异(P<0.05)Logistic回归分析发现,Tmean升高,FDP、D-二聚体、ALT升高,ALB降低是影响支气管灌洗次数的危险因素,预测的准确率为89.6%。②根据多因素回归分析结果,进行联合预测因子的ROC曲线运算,联合预测因子的曲线下面积为0.902,34.8815为临界点,敏感度为0.762,特异性为0.885。③进行决策曲线分析,得出total(联合预测因子)模型是预测患儿支气管灌洗次数的最佳模型。结论 支气管镜下灌洗是治疗MPP的有效手段,早期识别可能需多次灌洗治疗的危险因素,对于合理医患沟通、改善预后有着积极的意义。

       

      Abstract: ob<x>jective A retrospective analysis of the influencing factors of mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumoniae (Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia,MPP) treated with multiple bronchoscopic lavage therapy and construct a prediction model. Methods Clinical data of 203 children with MPP undergoing bronchoscopic lavage in our hospital from June 2018 to June 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. All children were divided into the single lavage group (150 cases) and the multiple lavage group (53 cases) according to the times of bronchoscopic lavage therapy. Compare the differences between the two groups in general condition, clinical symptoms, laboratory examination, complications and so on, analyze the influencing factors of MPP multiple lavage, and construct a prediction model. Results ①Univariate analysis showed that there were no significant differences in gender, age, other infections, number of lung lobes involved in inflammation, season of onset, WBC(White Blood Cells) and CKMB(Creative Kinase Isoenzyme) between the two groups (P>0.05). In the two groups, pleural effusion, extrapulmonary complications, fever before admission, duration of cough, maximum body temperature before admission, Mean d1-d3 body temperature (Tmean) after admission, 5 days ≥ macrolide antibiotics before admission, FDP(Fibrinogen degradation products), D-dimers (D-Dimer), CRP (C-reactive protein), ALT (alanine aminotransferase), ALB (serum albumin), PA (serum prealbumin) indexes were statistically different(P<0.05). Further Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that increased Tmean, FDP、D-dimers and ALT increased, and ALB decreased were risk factors for the times of bronchoscopic lavage therapy and the accuracy of prediction was 89.6%. ②According to the results of Multivariate regression analysis, the area under the curve of joint predictors was 0.902, 34.8815 was the critical point, the sensitivity was 0.762, and the specificity was 0.885. ③According to the analysis of the decision curve, the total(combined predictor) model is the best model to predict the times of bronchial lavage in children. Conclusion Bronchoscopy lavage is an effective method for the treatment of MPP. Early identification of risk factors that may require multiple lavage treatment is of positive significance for rational communication between doctors and patients and improvement of prognosis.

       

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