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    C反应蛋白/前白蛋白比值对肝硬化腹水患者合并自发性细菌性腹膜炎的预测价值和模型构建

    Prediction value of C-reactive protein/prealbumin ratio for spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in patients with cirrhotic ascites and construction of a prediction model

    • 摘要: 目的 探究C反应蛋白/前白蛋白比值(CPR)对肝硬化腹水患者合并自发性细菌性腹膜炎(SBP)的预测价值。方法 回顾性收集2017年1月—2023年2月于徐州医科大学附属医院就诊的280例肝硬化腹水患者的人口学特征和临床资料。所有患者均行腹腔穿刺、腹水常规、生化、培养检查。将患者分为SBP组(140例)和非SBP组(140例),采用单因素logistic回归、LASSO回归和多因素逐步logistic回归分析进行变量筛选和预测模型构建。通过ROC曲线、校准曲线和决策曲线评估预测模型的准确性和一致性。结果 采用单因素logistic回归,以P<0.05为筛选条件,将白球比(白蛋白/球蛋白)、国际标准化比值、CPR、白细胞、中性粒细胞百分比、淋巴细胞百分比、红细胞分布宽度、血肌酐、Child-Pugh分级和凝血酶原时间纳入LASSO回归中。LASSO回归和多因素逐步logistic回归分析结果表明国际标准化比值(OR=0.55,95%CI:0.32~0.94)、CPR(OR=67.71,95%CI:25.71~212.00)、中性粒细胞百分比(OR=1.05,95%CI: 1.02~1.08)和红细胞分布宽度(OR=1.12,95%CI:1.00~1.26)是肝硬化腹水患者并发SBP的独立危险因素。最终构建预测肝硬化腹水患者合并SBP的列线图模型,列线图模型的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.920(95%CI: 0.88~0.951),经1 000次重抽样验证后列线图模型的AUC为0.919(95%CI:0.887~0.946)。校准曲线和决策曲线结果表明列线图模型具有较好的准确性和一致性。结论 CPR对于肝硬化腹水患者合并SBP具有较好的预测价值,基于CPR构建的列线图模型可以较好地预测SBP的发生。

       

      Abstract: Objective To investigate the predictive value of the C-reactive protein/prealbumin ratio (CPR) for spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) in patients with cirrhotic ascites. Methods This retrospective study collected demographic and clinical data from 280 patients with cirrhotic ascites who were admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University between January 2017 and February 2023. All patients underwent abdominal puncture, routine ascitic fluid analysis, biochemical tests, and culture examinations. The patients were divided into the SBP group (n=140) and the non-SBP group (n=140). Univariate logistic regression, LASSO regression, and multivariate stepwise logistic regression were used for variable selection and construction of a prediction model. The accuracy and consistency of the prediction model were evaluated using ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. Results Univariate logistic regression with a significance level of P<0.05 identified factors including the albumin-globulin ratio, international normalized ratio, CPR, white blood cell count, neutrophil percentage, lymphocyte percentage, red blood cell distribution width, serum creatinine, Child-Pugh score, and prothrombin time, which were then included in the LASSO regression. The LASSO and multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis revealed that the international normalized ratio (OR=0.55, 95%CI:0.32-0.94), CPR (OR=67.71,95%CI:25.71-212.00), neutrophil percentage (OR=1.05,95%CI:1.02-1.08), and red blood cell distribution width (OR=1.12,95%CI:1.00-1.26) were independent risk factors for SBP in cirrhotic ascites patients. A nomogram model was constructed to predict the occurrence of SBP in these patients. The AUC of the nomogram model was 0.920 (95%CI:0.88-0.951), and after 1,000 resampling validations, the AUC became 0.919 (95%CI:0.887-0.946). The calibration curves and decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram model had good accuracy and consistency. Conclusions CPR has good predictive value for SBP in cirrhotic ascites patients. The CPR-based nomogram model can effectively predict the occurrence of SBP.

       

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