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    基于SII、CAR的列线图模型对肝硬化腹水并发自发性细菌性腹膜炎的预测价值

    Construction of a nomogram model based on SII and CAR for predicting spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in patients with cirrhotic ascites

    • 摘要: 目的 建立肝硬化腹水并发自发性细菌性腹膜炎(SBP)的列线图预测模型并进行内外部验证,评估预测价值。方法 回顾性收集徐州医科大学附属医院465例肝硬化腹水患者的临床资料,并将其分为建模组(368例)和验证组(97例)。根据是否发生SBP将建模组分为SBP组(172例)、非SBP组(196例),验证组分为SBP组(41例)、非SBP组(56例)。采用单因素和多因素logistic回归分析建模组中SBP发生的独立危险因素,并建立列线图预测模型。使用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线的曲线下面积(AUC)、校正曲线及决策分析曲线(DCA)分别在建模组和验证组中对预测模型进行内外部验证以评估模型的应用价值。结果 建模组中多因素logistic回归分析提示全身免疫炎症指数(SII)(OR 1.006,95%CI 1.003~1.008,P<0.01)、C-反应蛋白与白蛋白比值(CAR)(OR 3.968,95%CI 1.702~9.247,P<0.01)、凝血酶原时间(PT)(OR 1.281,95%CI 1.128~1.454,P<0.01)、平均血小板体积(MPV)(OR 1.557,95%CI 1.245~1.947,P<0.01)、总胆红素(TBIL)(0R 1.006,95%CI 1.001~1.011,P<0.05)是肝硬化腹水合并SBP的独立危险因素。基于SII、CAR构建的列线图模型的AUC为0.865,敏感度为80.2%,特异度为80.1%。结论 基于SII、CAR构建的列线图模型对肝硬化腹水患者SBP的发生风险具有良好的预测价值。

       

      Abstract: Objective To establish a nomogram model for predicting spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) in patients with cirrhotic ascites, and perform internal and external validation to assess its predictive value. Methods A total of 465 patients with cirrhotic ascites in the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University were enrolled and their clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into two groups: a model group (n=368) and a validation group (n=97). According to the occurrence of SBP, patients in the model group was subdivided into two groups: a SBP group (n=172) and a non-SBP group (n=196), whereas those in the validation group was subdivided into two groups: a SBP group (n= 41) and a non-SBP group (n=56). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to analyze the independent risk factors for the occurrence of SBP in the model group, and a prediction nomogram model was established. The established prediction model was internally and externally validated using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) in the model and validation groups, respectively. Results According to multivariate logistic regression analysis in the model group, systemic immunoinflammatory index (SII) (OR 1.006, 95%CI 1.003-1.008, P<0.01), C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR) (OR 3.968, 95%CI 1.702-9.247, P<0.01), prothrombin time (PT) (OR 1.281, 95%CI 1.282-9.247, P<0.01), mean platelet volume (MPV) (OR 1.557, 95%CI 1.245-1.947, P<0.01), and total bilirubin (TBIL) (OR 1.006, 95%CI 1.001-1.011, P<0.05) were the independent risk factors for SBP in patients with cirrhotic ascites. The AUC of the nomogram model based on SII and CAR was 0.865, with a sensitivity of 80.2%, and a specificity of 80.1%. Conclusions The nomogram model based on SII and CAR has good value of application for predicting the risk of occurrence of SBP in patients with cirrhotic ascites.

       

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