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    动脉瘤性蛛网膜下腔出血患者术后短期预后的列线图预测模型构建和验证

    Construction and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

    • 摘要: 目的 探讨影响动脉瘤性蛛网膜下腔出血(aSAH)患者术后短期预后的危险因素,并构建列线图预后预测模型。方法 回顾性分析2019年1月—2021年1月在徐州医科大学附属医院确诊为aSAH,并行手术治疗的341例患者的临床资料、影像学和实验室检查等指标,按照7∶3的比例将患者随机分为训练集和验证集。通过单因素和多因素logistic回归分析,确定影响aSAH患者短期预后的影响因素,构建列线图预测模型并验证。结果 多因素logistic回归分析显示年龄、改良 Fisher 分级、Hunt-Hess分级及 CT 显示破入脑室是影响aSAH患者术后3个月预后状态的独立危险因素。受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线显示训练集敏感度为0.85,特异度为0.87,曲线下面积(AUC)为0.901;验证集敏感度为0.86,特异度为0.88,AUC为0.922。校准曲线显示模型预测概率与实际发生概率一致性较好。决策曲线分析进一步证实该模型显示出良好的临床效益。结论 本研究构建的aSAH列线图预测模型可有效预测aSAH患者短期预后。

       

      Abstract: Objective To investigate the risk factors affecting the short-term prognosis of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) after surgery and to construct a nomogram model for prognosis prediction. Methods A total of 341 patients who were diagnosed with aSAH and treated surgically at the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from January 2019 to January 2021 were enrolled and their clinical data, imaging results, and laboratory indicators were collected for retrospective analysis. The patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7∶3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors influencing the short-term prognosis of aSAH patients. A nomogram model was constructed and validated. Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that age, modified Fisher grading, Hunt-Hess grading, and CT evidence of intraventricular hemorrhage were independent risk factors for the postoperative 3-month prognosis of aSAH patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.85, a specificity of 0.87, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.901 in the training set, while the validation set showed a sensitivity of 0.86, a specificity of 0.88, and an AUC of 0.922. Calibration curves indicated good consistency between predicted probabilities and actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis further confirmed that the model had good clinical benefit. Conclusions The nomogram model constructed in this study can effectively predict the short-term prognosis of aSAH patients.

       

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