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    基于中性粒细胞与高密度脂蛋白比值的帕金森病病情的列线图预测模型

    Establishment of a nomogram model for predicting Parkinson's disease severity based on neutrophil to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio

    • 摘要: 目的 探究外周血中性粒细胞与高密度脂蛋白胆固醇比值(NHR)、单核细胞与高密度脂蛋白胆固醇比值(MHR)和帕金森病(PD)病情严重程度的关系,构建预测PD病情严重程度的列线图模型。方法 选取2017年1月—2023年6月就诊于淮安市第一人民医院的原发性PD患者164例为PD组,并选取健康体检人群161例为对照组。PD组依据霍亚(H-Y)分期分为早期组和中晚期组。收集入选对象的基本人口学资料、血常规及血脂水平,计算出NHR、MHR。比较组间临床指标的差异;采用相关性分析明确PD病情严重程度与临床各指标的相关性;采用logistic回归评估PD病情严重程度的独立影响因素,构建预测PD病情严重程度的列线图模型。结果 PD组NHR明显高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);PD中晚期组NHR、MHR明显高于PD早期组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);多因素logistic回归分析结果显示NHR、统一帕金森病评定量表第Ⅲ部分(UPDRS Ⅲ)评分、病程是PD病情严重程度的危险因素(P<0.05)。根据回归分析结果进一步构建预测PD患者病情严重程度的列线图模型,该模型的受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)为0.948(95%CI:0.915~0.981,P<0.01),特异度为0.947,敏感度为0.843。Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合度检验结果为χ2=6.935(P>0.05),提示该列线图模型校准度良好。校准曲线显示该模型的预测准确度较高。决策曲线显示该模型的临床效益良好。结论 NHR、UPDRS Ⅲ评分、病程所构建的列线图模型可有效预测PD患者病情严重程度,具有较好的临床效用。

       

      Abstract: Objective To explore the relationship between the neutrophil to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (NHR), monocyte to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (MHR), and the severity of Parkinson's disease (PD), and to construct a nomogram model for predicting PD severity. Methods A total of 164 patients with primary PD, who were admitted to Huai'an First People's Hospital from January 2017 to June 2023 were selected and set as a PD group. Meanwhile, 161 healthy individuals undergoing routine physical examination were selected as a control group. According to Hoehn-Yahr stages, patients in the PD group was further divided into an early-stage group and a mid-to-late-stage group. Their demographic data, blood routine examination, and blood lipid were collected to calculate NHR and MHR for clinical comparison. Correlation analysis was used to determine the relationship between PD severity and clinical parameters. Logistic regression was employed to assess the independent factors affecting PD severity, and a nomogram model was developed to predict PD severity. Results NHR in the PD group was significantly higher than that in the control group (P<0.05). The mid-to-late-stage PD group showed significantly higher NHR and MHR than the early-stage group (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that NHR, the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale PartⅢ (UPDRS Ⅲ) score, and disease duration were risk factors for PD severity (P<0.05). Accordingly, a nomogram model was constructed to predict PD severity. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for the model was 0.948 (95% CI: 0.915-0.981, P<0.01), with a specificity of 0.947 and a sensitivity of 0.843. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded a χ2 value of 6.935 (P>0.05), indicating that the nomogram model has good calibration. The calibration curve showed that the model has a high prediction accuracy, and the decision curve indicated that the model has good clinical benefits. Conclusions The nomogram model based on NHR, UPDRS Ⅲ score, and disease duration can effectively predict the severity of PD, demonstrating good clinical utility.

       

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