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    胎龄<32周早产儿行机械通气并发呼吸机相关性肺炎的预测列线图模型构建

    Construction of a nomogram model for predicting ventilator-associated pneumonia in preterm infants with gestational age <32 weeks undergoing mechanical ventilation

    • 摘要: 目的 探讨胎龄<32周早产儿机械通气(MV)并发呼吸机相关性肺炎(VAP)的危险因素,并构建预测VAP发生的列线图模型。方法 对徐州市妇幼保健院2019年1月—2022年12月间收治的305例胎龄<32周、行MV的早产儿临床资料进行回顾性研究,分析并发VAP的危险因素,并建立预测列线图模型,绘制校准曲线和受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线以评估列线图模型的预测效能、区分度和校准度。结果 305例MV早产儿中并发VAP的发生率为11.8%;单因素和多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,低出生体重、败血症、新生儿肺出血、产前24 h内使用抗生素、气管插管次数≥2次均是胎龄<32周早产儿MV并发VAP的危险因素(P<0.05)。将上述危险因素作为预测指标,构建胎龄<32周早产儿MV并发VAP的预测列线图模型,ROC曲线分析结果显示,列线图预测胎龄<32周早产儿MV并发VAP的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.769;Bootstrap 自抽样法内部检验的一致性指数为0.769,该列线图模型区分度良好,校准曲线与理想参考线贴合较好。结论 低出生体重、败血症、新生儿肺出血、产前24 h内使用抗生素、气管插管次数≥2次均是胎龄<32周早产儿MV并发VAP的危险因素;据此构建的列线图模型对胎龄<32周早产儿MV并发VAP的风险具有良好预测效能。

       

      Abstract: Objective To investigate the risk factors for ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in preterm infants with gestational age (GA)<32 weeks undergoing mechanical ventilation (MV) and to construct a nomogram model for predicting the occurrence of VAP. Methods A total of 305 preterm infants with GA <32 weeks who were admitted to Xuzhou Maternity and Child Health Hospital and underwent MV from January 2019 to December 2022 were selected and their clinical data were collected for retrospective analysis. Risk factors for VAP were analyzed, and a nomogram model was constructed. Calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to evaluate the model's predictive efficiency, discrimination, and calibration. Results Among the 305 preterm infants undergoing MV, the incidence of VAP was 11.8%. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified that low birth weight, sepsis, neonatal pulmonary hemorrhage, use of antibiotics within 24 h before delivery, and ≥2 endotracheal intubation attempts were risk factors for VAP in preterm infants with GA<32 weeks (P<0.05). These factors were used as predictors to construct a nomogram model for predicting VAP in preterm infants with GA <32 weeks. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for the nomogram was 0.769. The consistency index validated using the Bootstrap resampling method was 0.769, indicating good discrimination. The calibration curve closely aligned with the ideal reference line, demonstrating good calibration. Conclusions Low birth weight, sepsis, neonatal pulmonary hemorrhage, use of antibiotics within 24 h before delivery, and ≥2 endotracheal intubation attempts are risk factors for VAP in preterm infants with GA <32 weeks undergoing MV. The constructed nomogram model provides good predictive efficiency for assessing the risk of VAP in the preterm infants.

       

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