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    儿童IgA血管炎肾损害列线图预测模型的建立与验证

    Establishment and validation of a nomogram prediction model for renal damage in children with IgA vasculitis

    • 摘要: 目的 建立儿童IgA血管炎(IgAV)肾损害(IgAVN)的列线图预测模型,拟为儿童IgAVN预测提供高效、简易的新方法。方法 回顾性纳入南京鼓楼医院集团宿迁医院儿科2022年1月—2023年12月接受治疗的240例IgAV患儿,将研究对象按照7∶3的比例随机分成训练集(168例)和测试集(72例)。采用单因素和多因素logistic回归分析IgAVN的影响因素,建立列线图模型,利用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线验证模型性能,临床决策曲线(DCA)评估模型临床效用。结果 训练集IgAV组和IgAVN组间年龄、白细胞计数(WBC)、中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比值(NLR)、血小板/淋巴细胞比值(PLR)、补体C3、补体C4、超敏C反应蛋白(hs-CRP)和尿素氮(BUN)等指标的差异有统计学意义(P均<0.05)。将单因素logistic回归分析有意义的变量纳入多因素logistic回归模型中,结果显示年龄、WBC、PLR、C3、C4、hs-CRP和BUN为IgAVN的独立影响因素(P<0.05)。训练集列线图模型的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.955(95%CI:0.923~0.986),敏感度为82.14%,特异度为93.75%;测试集的AUC为0.917(95%CI:0.848~0.985),敏感度为70.83%,特异度为95.83%。模型在两数据集中的预测效能差异无统计学意义(D=0.990,P=0.324>0.05)。校准曲线显示模型一致性良好,DCA分析显示模型预测IgAVN具有较高的净获益。结论 基于年龄、WBC、PLR、C3、C4、hs-CRP和BUN的列线图模型用于IgAVN预测的临床效能较高,可在临床工作中推广应用。

       

      Abstract: Objective To establish a nomogram prediction model for renal damage in children with IgA vasculitis (IgAV), in order to provide an efficient and simple method for predicting IgAVN in children. Methods A total of 240 children with IgAV who were treated at Department of Pediatrics, Suqian Hospital of Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Group from January 2022 to December 2023, were included for retrospective analysis. The subjects were randomly divided into a training set (n=168) and a test set (n=72) in a 7∶3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the factors influencing the prediction of IgAVN. A nomogram model was established, and the model's discrimination was evaluated by plotting a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Statistical differences were found between the IgAV group and the IgAVN group in terms of age, white blood cell (WBC) count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), complement C3, complement C4, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (all P<0.05). Variables identified as significant in the univariate logistic regression were included in the multivariate logistic regression model. The results showed that age, WBC, PLR, C3, C4, hs-CRP, and BUN were independent factors influencing the prediction of IgAVN (P<0.05). Based on these factors, a nomogram model was established. For the training set, the area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.955 (95% CI:0.923-0.986), with a sensitivity of 82.14% and a specificity of 93.75%. For the test set, the AUC was 0.917 (95% CI:0.848-0.985), with a sensitivity of 70.83% and a specificity of 95.83%. DeLong test for AUC differences between the training and test sets showed no statistical difference in predictive performance (D=0.990, P=0.324>0.05). Conclusions The nomogram model based on age, WBC, PLR, C3, C4, hs-CRP, and BUN demonstrates high clinical value in predicting IgAVN and can be widely applied in clinical practice.

       

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