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    基于侧支循环评分及临床特征构建急性前循环缺血性脑卒中机械取栓预后列线图预测模型

    Construction of a prognostic prediction model of endovascular mechanical thrombectomy for acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke based on collateral circulation score and clinical features

    • 摘要: 目的 探讨急性前循环大血管闭塞性缺血性脑卒中(AIS-ACLVO)血管内机械取栓治疗患者预后的影响因素,并基于侧支循环评分及临床特征构建新的列线图模型用于预测患者的预后情况。方法 回顾性连续纳入2021年1月—2023年12月徐州市中心医院急诊脑卒中绿色通道或神经内科收治的AIS-ACLVO血管内机械取栓治疗患者159例。根据90天改良Rankin量表(mRS)评分分为预后良好组(mRS评分0—2分,68例)和预后不良组(mRS评分3—6分,91例)。采用单因素分析筛选对治疗转归有影响的因素,Boruta算法筛选与结局指标相关的预测变量,多因素logistic回归确定AIS-ACLVO血管内机械取栓治疗患者90 d临床预后的独立危险因素,随后基于上述独立危险因素建立预测模型。以受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)评估该预测模型的区分度,以校准曲线反映预测模型的校准度,绘制列线图。结果 单因素分析及Boruta算法显示年龄、吸烟史、入院血糖水平、基线美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表(NIHSS)评分、淋巴细胞比值、Alberta卒中项目早期CT评分(ASPECTS评分)、Tan评分、发病至入院时间为预后的影响因素。将以上指标纳入多因素logistic回归分析,结果显示吸烟史、基线NIHSS评分、入院血糖水平、ASPECTS评分、Tan评分、发病至入院时间是AIS-ACLVO血管内机械取栓治疗患者90 d临床预后的独立危险因素。建立预测模型,AUC为0.918(95%CI:0.876~0.960,P<0.001),敏感度为0.901,特异度为0.794,最大约登指数为0.695。模型的校准曲线贴近理想曲线。临床决策曲线分析提示模型有临床应用价值。结论 吸烟史、基线NIHSS评分、入院血糖水平、ASPECTS评分、Tan评分、发病至入院时间是AIS-ACLVO血管内机械取栓治疗患者90 d临床预后的独立危险因素。基于侧支循环评分及临床特征构建的列线图预测模型对于评估AIS-ACLVO血管内机械取栓治疗患者90 d临床预后有一定的预测价值。

       

      Abstract: Objective To investigate the prognostic factors influencing patients who were diagnosed with acute ischemic stroke with anterior circulation large vessel occlusion (AIS-ACLVO) and underwent endovascular mechanical thrombectomy, and to construct a novel scoring model that incorporates collateral circulation score and clinical features for predicting patient prognosis. Methods This retrospective study included 159 patients with AIS-ACLVO who were admitted to the Emergency Stroke Green Channel or Neurology Department of Xuzhou Central Hospital and underwent endovascular mechanical thrombectomy from January 2021 to December 2023. According to the 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score, the patients were divided into two groups: a good prognosis group (mRS scores 0-2, n=68) and a poor prognosis group (mRS scores 3-6, n=91). Univariate analysis was used to identify factors influencing treatment outcomes, and the Boruta algorithm was applied to screen predictive variables related to the outcome indicators. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the independent risk factors for 90-day clinical prognosis of AIS-ACLVO patients after endovascular mechanical thrombectomy, and a prediction model was constructed. The model's discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and its calibration was evaluated using calibration curves. A nomogram was constructed. Results Univariate and Boruta algorithm analysis showed that age, smoking history, blood glucose level at admission, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, lymphocyte ratio, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS), Tan score, and the interval from onset to admission were closely related to prognosis.The above indicators were incorporated into the multivariate logistic regression analysis, which demonstrated that smoking history, baseline NHISS score, blood glucose level at admission, ASPECTS, Tan score, and the interval from onset to admission were independent risk factors for the 90-day clinical prognosis of patients with AIS-ACLVO after endovascular mechanical thrombectomy. The established prediction model showed an AUC of 0.918 (95%CI: 0.876~0.960,P<0.001), with a sensitivity of 0.901, a specificity of 0.794, and a maximum Youden index of 0.695. The calibration curve of the model approximated with the ideal curve. Decision curve analysis suggested that the model has clinical utility. Conclusions Smoking history, baseline NHISS score, blood glucose level at admission, ASPECTS, Tan score, and the interval from onset to admission are independent risk factors for 90-day clinical prognosis of AIS-ACLVO patients after endovascular mechanical thrombectomy. The predictive model based on collateral circulation score and clinical features has certain predictive value for assessing the 90-day clinical prognosis of AIS-ACLVO patients after endovascular mechanical thrombectomy.

       

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