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    非大量基底节区脑出血患者发生应激性溃疡的危险因素分析 及预测模型构建

    Analysis of risk factors and construction of a prediction model for stress ulcers in patients with non-massive basal ganglia hemorrhage

    • 摘要: 目的 分析非大量基底节区脑出血患者发生应激性溃疡的危险因素,并构建列线图预测模型。方法 回顾性分析2021年7月—2024年3月于淮北市人民医院住院接受保守治疗的242例非大量基底节区脑出血患者的临床资料,其中发生应激性溃疡者48例,未发生应激性溃疡者194例。通过单因素及多因素logistic回归分析构建列线图预测模型。绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估该模型的区分度,采用标准曲线和Hosmer-Lemeshow检验评估该模型的校准度,并通过决策曲线分析评价该模型的临床实用性。结果 单因素和多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄、脑梗死史、出血量、血肿扩大及脑室出血是非大量基底节区脑出血患者发生应激性溃疡的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。基于这些因素建立列线图预测模型。ROC曲线分析显示,该模型的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.91,95%CI(0.87~0.95),具有良好的区分能力。较准曲线显示模型预测概率与实际概率一致性良好。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验(χ2=3.869 4,P=0.868 7)提示模型校准度较高。决策曲线分析显示,阈值介于0.02~0.91时,该临床预测模型具有较好的临床净收益。结论 老年、既往有脑梗死史、出血量较大、血肿扩大及脑室出血的非大量基底节区脑出血患者,在住院保守治疗期间更易发生应激性溃疡。基于上述因素构建的列线图模型能够直观预测这一风险,有助于实现更好的个体化治疗。

       

      Abstract: Objective To identify risk factors for stress ulcers in patients with non-massive basal ganglia intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and to develop a nomogram-based prediction model.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 242 patients with non-massive basal ganglia ICH who were admitted to Huaibei People's Hospital and treated conservatively between July 2021 and March 2024. Among them, 48 patients developed stress ulcers and 194 did not. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify independent risk factors, which were subsequently used to construct a nomogram. Model discrimination was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Calibration was assessed with a calibration curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Clinical utility was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified age, history of cerebral infarction, hematoma volume, hematoma expansion, and intraventricular hemorrhage as independent risk factors for stress ulcers in patients with non-massive basal ganglia ICH (all P<0.05). A nomogram incorporating these variables was established. The ROC curve analysis demonstrated good discriminative ability, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.87-0.95). The calibration curve showed good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (χ2=3.87, P=0.87) indicated satisfactory calibration. DCA suggested that the model provided a favorable net clinical benefit across a threshold probability range of 0.02-0.91.Conclusions Patients with non-massive basal ganglia ICH who are older and have a history of cerebral infarction, larger hematoma volume, hematoma expansion, or intraventricular hemorrhage are at increased risk of developing stress ulcers during conservative treatment. The proposed nomogram offers an intuitive and effective tool for individualized risk prediction and may assist in clinical decision-making.

       

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