Abstract:
Objective To identify risk factors for stress ulcers in patients with non-massive basal ganglia intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and to develop a nomogram-based prediction model.
Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 242 patients with non-massive basal ganglia ICH who were admitted to Huaibei People's Hospital and treated conservatively between July 2021 and March 2024. Among them, 48 patients developed stress ulcers and 194 did not. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify independent risk factors, which were subsequently used to construct a nomogram. Model discrimination was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Calibration was assessed with a calibration curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Clinical utility was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).
Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified age, history of cerebral infarction, hematoma volume, hematoma expansion, and intraventricular hemorrhage as independent risk factors for stress ulcers in patients with non-massive basal ganglia ICH (all
P<0.05). A nomogram incorporating these variables was established. The ROC curve analysis demonstrated good discriminative ability, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.87-0.95). The calibration curve showed good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (
χ2=3.87,
P=0.87) indicated satisfactory calibration. DCA suggested that the model provided a favorable net clinical benefit across a threshold probability range of 0.02-0.91.
Conclusions Patients with non-massive basal ganglia ICH who are older and have a history of cerebral infarction, larger hematoma volume, hematoma expansion, or intraventricular hemorrhage are at increased risk of developing stress ulcers during conservative treatment. The proposed nomogram offers an intuitive and effective tool for individualized risk prediction and may assist in clinical decision-making.