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    基于超声及临床病理特征构建非三阴性乳腺癌腋窝淋巴结转移负荷的预测模型

    Construction of a prediction model for axillary lymph node metastatic load in non-triple-negative breast cancer based on ultrasound and clinicopathological features

    • 摘要: 目的 构建基于超声图像特征与临床病理资料的列线图模型,预测非三阴性乳腺癌腋窝淋巴结转移负荷,为手术治疗提供指导。方法 回顾性分析2018年1月—2022年12月徐州医科大学附属医院收治的376例非三阴性乳腺癌患者的超声特征及临床病理资料,按转移淋巴结数量分为低负荷组(≤2个)和高负荷组(≥3个),以7∶3比例随机分为训练集(263例)和验证集(113例)。采用卡方检验行单因素分析,对有统计学意义(P<0.05)的指标行多因素logistic分析,基于显著变量构建列线图预测模型,并通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)、校准曲线、临床决策曲线(DCA)进行验证和评估。结果 单因素分析显示,超声特征中肿瘤最大径、淋巴结皮质厚度、淋巴门缺失,临床病理资料中病理类型、年龄差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);多因素分析显示,肿瘤最大径(OR=0.37, P=0.043)、淋巴结皮质厚度(OR=6.81, P=0.001)、淋巴门缺失(OR=4.73, P=0.001)、病理类型(OR=2.91, P=0.009)、年龄(OR=1.46, P=0.034)是预测非三阴性乳腺癌腋窝淋巴结转移负荷的独立因素,据此构建列线图。训练集与验证集的AUC分别为0.854 (95%CI:0.798~0.911)和0.882(95%CI: 0.808~0.957),校准曲线提示预测曲线与实际曲线相近;Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验P值分别为0.708、0.643;DCA显示阈值概率在0~90%范围可带来临床获益。结论 基于超声图像特征和临床病理资料构建的列线图预测模型,在预测非三阴性乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移负荷方面准确性高、临床获益明确,可指导手术治疗。

       

      Abstract: Objective To construct a nomogram model based on ultrasound features and clinicopathological data to predict axillary lymph node metastatic load in non-triple-negative breast cancer (non-TNBC) and provide guidance for surgical treatment.Methods Retrospective analysis was conducted on 376 patients with non-TNBC breast cancer who were admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from January 2018 to December 2022. According to the number of metastatic lymph nodes, the patients were divided into a low-load group (≤2 nodes) and a high-load group (≥3 nodes). They were randomly assigned to a training set (n=263) and a validation set (n=113) at a 7∶3 ratio. The chi-square test was used for univariate analysis, and variables with statistical significance (P<0.05) were included in multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram prediction model was constructed based on significant variables. The model was evaluated and validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).Results Univariate analysis showed that tumor maximum diameter, lymph node cortical thickness, and lymphatic hilum absence among ultrasound features, as well as pathological type and age among clinicopathological data, were statistically significant (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis identified tumor maximum diameter (OR=0.37, P=0.043), lymph node cortical thickness (OR=6.81, P=0.001), lymphatic hilum absence (OR=4.73, P=0.001), pathological type (OR=2.91, P=0.009), and age (OR=1.46, P=0.034) as independent predictive factors for axillary lymph node metastatic load in non-TNBC. A nomogram was then constructed accordingly. The AUC values for the training and validation sets were 0.854 (95%CI:0.798-0.911) and 0.882 (95%CI: 0.808-0.957), respectively. The calibration curves indicated good alignment between predicted and actual outcomes. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded P-values of 0.708 and 0.643 for the training and validation sets, respectively. DCA demonstrated that clinical benefits could be obtained within a threshold probability range of 0-90%.Conclusions The nomogram model constructed based on ultrasound imaging features and clinicopathological data shows high accuracy and clear clinical benefit in predicting axillary lymph node metastatic load in non-TNBC breast cancer patients, providing valuable guidance for surgical decision-making.

       

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