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    脊髓损伤患者衰弱风险调查及危险因素分析

    Survey and analysis of risk factors for frailty in patients with spinal cord injury

    • 摘要: 目的 对脊髓损伤患者衰弱风险进行调查并分析其危险因素。方法 选取江苏省人民医院2023年6月—2024年9月收治的121例脊髓损伤患者作为研究对象,采用衰弱指数(FI)对患者衰弱发生情况进行调查,根据衰弱发生情况将患者分为衰弱组与非衰弱组,统计患者临床资料,采用多因素logistic回归分析脊髓损伤患者发生衰弱的影响因素。构建预测模型并绘制列线图,采用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验评估模型校准度;绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析列线图模型对脊髓损伤患者发生衰弱的预测价值,另选取本院60例脊髓损伤患者临床资料作为验证集对模型进行外部验证。结果 121例患者中判定为衰弱的患者34例(衰弱组),衰弱发生率为28.10%,其余87例患者均无衰弱情况(非衰弱组)。衰弱组患者年龄、体重指数(BMI)高于非衰弱组(P<0.05);两组性别、文化程度等一般资料的差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。衰弱组病程长于非衰弱组,两组美国脊髓损伤协会(ASIA)分级、脊髓损伤范围的差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);两组损伤部位、受伤原因等临床资料的差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示年龄、ASIA分级为脊髓损伤患者发生衰弱的影响因素(P<0.05)。基于多因素logistic回归分析构建脊髓损伤患者发生衰弱的列线图预测模型:P=1/(1+e-Z),Z=0.049×年龄+0.650×ASIA分级-12.777,Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示训练集与验证集的χ2=15.413、3.600,P=0.052、0.891,预测曲线及其校正预测曲线与标准曲线较为接近,模型校准度较好;ROC曲线分析结果显示训练集与验证集列线图模型预测脊髓损伤患者发生衰弱的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.821、0.808,敏感度、特异度分别为94.12%、68.97%和76.47%、76.74%。结论 脊髓损伤患者衰弱发生率较高,年龄与ASIA分级为脊髓损伤患者发生衰弱的危险因素,临床应引起重视。

       

      Abstract: Objective To investigate the risk of frailty in patients with spinal cord injury and analyze the associated risk factors. Methods A total of 121 patients with spinal cord injury who were admitted to Jiangsu Province Hospital from June 2023 to September 2024 were selected in the study. Frailty was assessed by the Frailty Index (FI). Based on the occurrence of frailty, the patients were categorized into frailty and non-frailty groups. Their clinical data were collected. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the influencing factors of frailty in spinal cord injury patients. A prediction model was constructed, and a nomogram was drawn. The model calibration was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to assess the predictive value of the nomogram for frailty in spinal cord injury patients. Additionally, clinical data of 60 spinal cord injury patients from the same hospital were used as an external validation set. Results Among the 121 patients, 34 were classified as frail (frailty group), with a frailty incidence of 28.10%. The remaining 87 patients had no frailty (non-frailty group). Patients in the frailty group were older and had a higher body mass index (BMI) than those in the non-frailty group (P<0.05). There were no statistical differences in sex, education background, and other general information between the two groups (P>0.05). The frailty group had a longer disease course than the non-frailty group, with statistical differences between the two groups in terms of the American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) classification and the extent of spinal cord injury (P<0.05). No significant differences were found between the two groups regarding injury site, cause of injury, and other clinical data (P>0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age and ASIA classification were influencing factors for frailty in spinal cord injury patients (P<0.05). Accordingly, a prediction model for frailty in spinal cord injury patients was constructed: P = 1/(1 + e-Z), Z = 0.049 × age + 0.650 × ASIA classification - 12.777. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed χ2 values of 15.413 for the training set and 3.600 for the validation set, with P-values of 0.052 and 0.891, respectively. The prediction curve and its corrected prediction version closely approximated the standard curve, demonstrating good model calibration. ROC curve analysis revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) for the nomogram in predicting frailty in spinal cord injury patients was 0.821 for the training set and 0.808 for the validation set. The sensitivity and specificity of 94.12% and 68.97% for the training set, and 76.47% and 76.74% for the validation set, respectively. Conclusions Frailty incidence is high in spinal cord injury patients. Age and ASIA classification are significant risk factors for frailty in spinal cord injury patients, and clinical attention should be given to these factors.

       

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