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    肺结核初治患者药物性肝损伤发生的危险因素及风险预测研究

    Risk factors and risk prediction for the development of drug-induced liver injury in patients with newly treated pulmonary tuberculosis

    • 摘要: 目的 分析肺结核初治患者发生药物性肝损伤(DILI)的危险因素,并对抗结核治疗过程中DILI发生的危险因素。方法 选取2015年1月—2024年12月于太仓市第一人民医院感染科诊治的522例肺结核初治患者为研究对象,并收集临床资料。根据抗结核治疗过程中是否发生DILI将患者分为肝损伤组和非肝损伤组,比较2组患者的基线特征和DILI发生的时间分布。采用单因素及多因素Cox风险模型筛选抗结核治疗过程中DILI发生的危险因素,并构建风险预测模型。通过受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)评估模型对不同时间段DILI发生风险的预测效能。结果 在522例患者中,共有75例发生DILI,发生率为14.23%。与非肝损伤组相比,肝损伤组年龄较大,白蛋白(ALB)水平较低,丙氨酸氨基转移酶(ALT)水平较高。DILI主要发生于抗结核治疗后的第4~8周。单因素Cox回归分析结果显示,年龄、饮酒史、红细胞计数降低、血红蛋白降低、ALB降低及ALT升高均为DILI发生的危险因素。多因素Cox回归分析结果表明,年龄(HR=1.028,95%CI: 1.013~1.044,P<0.001)、ALB水平降低(HR=0.949,95%CI: 0.902~0.998,P=0.042)及ALT水平升高(HR=1.018,95%CI: 1.003~1.033,P=0.011)为抗结核治疗DILI发生的独立危险因素。ALT≥20 U/L患者发生DILI的风险为ALT<20 U/L患者的1.713倍(HR=1.713,95%CI: 1.072~2.737,P=0.024)。以年龄、ALB及ALT水平为自变量构建Cox回归模型,ROC分析结果显示,该模型对抗结核治疗第4、8、12周及整个治疗过程DILI发生风险均有较好的预测效能(AUC=0.725,P<0.001)。结论 抗结核治疗相关DILI主要发生于治疗后第4~8周。年龄增长、ALB水平降低及ALT水平升高是DILI发生的重要危险因素,其联合预测模型对抗结核治疗过程中DILI的发生具有较高的预测价值。

       

      Abstract: Objective To analyze the risk factors of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) in patients with newly treated pulmonary tuberculosis and to predict the risks associated with DILI during anti-tuberculosis therapy. Methods A total of 522 patients who were newly diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis and treated at Department of Infectious Diseases, Taicang First People’s Hospital from January 2015 to December 2024 were enrolled and their clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. According to whether DILI occurred during the course of anti-tuberculosis treatment, the patients were divided into a liver injury group and a non-liver injury group. Baseline characteristics and the time distribution of DILI occurrence were compared between the two groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors associated with DILI during anti-tuberculosis therapy and to construct a risk prediction model. The predictive performance of the model for DILI occurrence at different time points was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results Among the 522 patients, 75 developed DILI, with an incidence rate of 14.23%. Compared with the non-liver injury group, patients in the liver injury group were older and had lower albumin (ALB) levels and higher alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels. DILI mainly occurred between weeks 4 and 8 after initiation of anti-tuberculosis treatment. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, alcohol consumption, decreased red blood cell count, decreased hemoglobin level, decreased ALB, and elevated ALT were risk factors for DILI. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age (HR=1.028, 95%CI: 1.013-1.044, P<0.001), decreased ALB (HR=0.949, 95% CI: 0.902-0.998, P=0.042), and elevated ALT (HR=1.018, 95%CI: 1.003-1.033, P=0.011) were independent risk factors for DILI during anti-tuberculosis therapy. Patients with ALT≥20 U/L had a 1.713-fold risk of developing DILI compared with those with ALT<20 U/L (HR=1.713,95%CI: 1.072-2.737, P=0.024). A Cox regression model constructed using age, ALB, and ALT as predictors showed good predictive performance for DILI occurrence at weeks 4, 8, and 12 of anti-tuberculosis therapy and during the whole process. Conclusions Anti-tuberculosis DILI mainly occurs between weeks 4 and 8 after initiation of treatment. Advanced age, decreased ALB, and elevated ALT are important risk factors for DILI. The combined prediction model based on these variables shows good predictive value for DILI during anti-tuberculosis therapy.

       

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