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    基于多维度数据的儿童支气管哮喘激素治疗预后预测模型构建与验证

    Construction and validation of a multidimensional data-based prognostic prediction model for inhaled corticosteroid therapy in children with bronchial asthma

    • 摘要: 目的 构建并验证基于多维度数据的预测模型,用于评估儿童支气管哮喘吸入糖皮质激素(ICS)治疗后的预后。方法 回顾性纳入2021年1月—2025年5月宿迁市第一人民医院收治的接受规范ICS治疗的支气管哮喘患儿213例。采用Boruta算法从炎症、免疫、肺功能及过敏相关指标中筛选核心预测变量,构建logistic回归模型,并按7∶3比例划分训练集和内部验证集。通过区分度、校准度及重分类指标,包括净重新分类指数(NRI)和综合判别改善指数(IDI),评价模型效能。结果 Boruta算法共筛选出白细胞介素(IL)-6、CD4+/CD8+比值、超敏C反应蛋白(hs-CRP)、第1秒用力呼气量占预计值百分比(FEV1%pred)、维生素D、呼出气一氧化氮(FeNO)及过敏原阳性数≥3种7项关键预测因子。多维度融合模型预测效能最佳,训练集AUC为0.971,内部验证集AUC为0.948,且校准度良好,整体性能显著优于传统免疫炎症模型。其中,FeNO、CD4+/CD8+比值和 IL-6为主要预测因子。结论 基于气道炎症、免疫状态、肺功能及过敏负荷等多维度数据构建的预测模型,可较准确地评估儿童支气管哮喘ICS治疗后的预后风险。由该模型衍生的列线图可为临床风险分层和个体化干预提供实用工具。

       

      Abstract: Objective To develop and validate a multidimensional data-based prediction model for evaluating the prognosis of children with bronchial asthma following inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) therapy.Methods A total of 213 children with bronchial asthma, who were admitled to Suqian First People′s hospital from January 2021 to May 2025 and received standardized ICS treatment were enrolled and their clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. The Boruta algorithm was applied to identify key predictive variables from indicators related to inflammation, immunity, pulmonary function, and allergy. A logistic regression model was established, and the dataset was randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set at a ratio of 7:3. Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination, calibration, and reclassification ability using the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) indices.Results Seven key predictive factors were identified by the Boruta algorithm, including interleukin-6 (IL-6), CD4+/CD8+ ratio, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), percentage of predicted forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1%pred), vitamin D level, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), and positivity for three or more allergens. The multidimensional integrated model demonstrated the optimal prediction performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.971 in the training set and 0.948 in the validation set. The model also showed good calibration and significantly outperformed the conventional immune-inflammatory model in overall performance. Among the selected predictors, FeNO, the CD4+/CD8+ ratio, and IL-6 were the main prediction factors.Conclusions The prognostic prediction model incorporating multidimensional data, including airway inflammation, immune status, pulmonary function, and allergic burden, can accurately predict the risk of adverse prognosis in children with bronchial asthma receiving ICS therapy. The nomogram derived from this model may serve as a practical tool for clinical risk stratification and individualized intervention.

       

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