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    肝硬化合并胆囊结石影响因素分析及筛查模型的构建

    Liver cirrhosis with gallstones: influencing factor analysis and screening model construction

    • 摘要: 目的 探讨肝硬化患者合并胆囊结石的影响因素,建立肝硬化合并胆囊结石的筛查模型,为预防和治疗肝硬化并发胆囊结石提供参考依据。方法 回顾性分析2018年1月—2019年12月徐州医科大学附属医院收治的171例肝硬化并发胆囊结石患者(观察组)及202例肝硬化无胆囊结石患者(对照组)的临床病例资料。采用多因素Logistic回归分析肝硬化患者合并胆囊结石的独立危险因素,进而得出相应自变量的回归系数,构建肝硬化合并胆囊结石的筛查模型。结果 多元Logistic回归分析表明年龄、肝病病程、门静脉内径≥1.3 cm、总胆固醇升高、甘油三酯升高、总胆汁酸升高、血小板降低、肝功能C级为影响肝硬化并发胆囊结石的独立危险因素。基于危险因素构建的模型对筛查肝硬化并发胆囊结石异常的诊断阈值为0.424 8,敏感度为76.6%,特异度为71.3%,ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.782,诊断价值优于其他任一单一指标。结论 根据肝硬化合并胆囊结石独立危险因素构建的筛查模型诊断价值较优,对早期干预肝硬化合并胆囊结石的发生具有一定的参考价值及临床意义。

       

      Abstract: Objective To explore the influencing factors of liver cirrhosis patients with gallstones, and establish a screening model for liver cirrhosis with gallstones, so as to provide reference for prevention and treatment of liver cirrhosis with gallstones. Methods A total of 171 liver cirrhosis patients with gallstones (an observation group) and 202 liver cirrhosis patients without gallstones (a control group) who were admitted in the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from January 2018 to December 2019 were enrolled and their clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors of liver cirrhosis patients with gallstones. Then the regression coefficients of the corresponding independent variables were obtained to construct a screening model for liver cirrhosis with gallstones. Results According to multivariate logistic regression, age, the duration of liver disease, the inner diameter of the portal vein ≥1.3 cm, increases in total cholesterol, triglyceride, total bile acid, decreases in platelet, and grade C liver function were the independent risk factors of liver cirrhosis with gallstones. The model based on the above risk factors showed a diagnostic threshold of 0.424 8 for screening liver cirrhosis with gallstones, with a sensitivity of 76.6%, a specificity of 71.3% and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.782. The diagnostic value was better than any other single index. Conclusions The screening model based on the independent risk factors of liver cirrhosis with gallstones is useful for early prevention of liver cirrhosis with gallstones.

       

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