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    胆碱酯酶、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值在转移性胃癌全身化疗中的预后价值

    Prognostic value of cholinesterase and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio in metastatic gastric cancer patients treated with systemic chemotherapy

    • 摘要: 目的 探讨治疗前血清胆碱酯酶(ChE)和中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比值(NLR)与转移性胃癌患者预后的相关性,并建立转移性胃癌患者列线图预测模型。方法 回顾性分析行一线化疗的101例转移性胃癌患者的临床及病理资料,利用X-tile程序计算ChE、NLR最佳截断值。分析ChE、NLR与其他临床特征之间的关系,并检测两者之间的相关性。运用Kaplan-Meier法分析ChE、NLR对患者总生存期(OS)的影响。通过COX分析筛选与转移性胃癌独立预后相关的参数,通过R软件绘制列线图并进行内部验证。结果 多因素结果分析显示,ChE、NLR、体力状况评分(ECOG评分)和糖类抗原-199(CA-199)是OS的独立危险因素。采用上述影响转移性胃癌患者OS的独立危险因素构建列线图预测模型,所得列线图具有较好的区分度和校准度,列线图预测模型的一致性指数(C-index)为0.673。包含ChE的预测列线图和受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线优于不包含ChE的预测列线图和ROC曲线。结论 ChE和NLR用于预测转移性胃癌患者预后具有较高的临床价值,包含ChE的列线图模型符合度良好,可较准确地判断转移性胃癌患者的预后。

       

      Abstract: Objective To explore the relationship of pretreatment cholinesterase (ChE) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR) with the prognosis of patients with metastatic gastric cancer, and establish a nomogram predictive model for those patients. Methods A total of 101 patients who were pathologically diagnosed with metastatic gastric cancer and treated with first-line chemotherapy were enrolled in the current study. The optimal cutoff values of ChE and NLR were calculated by X-tile program. The relationship between ChE, NLR and other clinicopathological characteristics was analyzed. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the correlation of ChE and NLR with overall survival. Multivariate COX regression was used to analyze the predictors independently associated with the prognosis of metastatic gastric cancer. Furthermore, R software was used to draw a nomogram before internal verification. Results According to multivariate analysis, ChE, NLR, ECOG score and CA-199 were the independent influencing factors of OS in patients with metastatic gastric cancer. These independent factors were adopted to construct the nomogram predictive model. This nomogram had good discrimination and calibration, and the C-index of the model was 0.673. Predictive nomograms and time-independent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve that included ChE scores were superior to those without ChE scores. Conclusions Both ChE and NLR are useful in predicting the prognosis of patients with metastatic gastric cancer. The nomogram including ChE shows good consistence and can accurately predict the prognosis of metastatic gastric cancer.

       

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