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    基于SEER数据库构建脑胶质母细胞瘤患者生存预测模型

    A survival prediction model for glioblastoma patients based on the SEER database

    • 摘要: 目的 构建脑胶质母细胞瘤(GBM)的预测模型来预测个体化生存概率,并对该模型进行验证。方法 从美国国家癌症研究所监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库(SEER)中收集2011—2015年5 417例脑胶质母细胞瘤患者的临床及肿瘤特征信息数据。采用最小绝对值收缩和选择算子(LASSO)与多因素COX回归分析筛选出与预后相关的独立风险因素,然后将这些因素纳入并构建列线图生存预后预测模型。通过受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)和校正曲线确定列线图的预测精度和判别能力。结果 建立了基于年龄、手术、化疗和放疗为预后因素的预测模型。建模组ROC曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.757,验证组的AUC值为0.754,确定生存概率的校准曲线提示,该模型预测结果与实际结果吻合度较高。LASSO-COX风险回归的结果表明年龄、手术、化疗、放疗是独立危险因素,而性别、婚姻状态、种族、侧别、原发部位、肿瘤大小及肿瘤数量等因素与患者生存状态相关性较差。结论 成功建立了列线图生存预测模型,为脑胶质母细胞瘤患者提供了一个简洁可靠的生存预测工具。

       

      Abstract: Objective To establish and validate a nomogram of glioblastoma prediction model to estimate individualized survival probability.Methods The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results(SEER) database of the National Cancer Institute was used to collect data on the clinical and tumor features of 5 417 glioblastoma patients from 2011 to 2015.A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO) model and Multivariate COX regression analysis were adopted to screen the independent risk factor associated with prognosis for the prediction model. The prediction precision and discriminatory power of the nomogram were assessed using a receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC) and calibration curve.Results The prediction model was developed, using age, surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy as prognostic factors. The area under the ROC curve(AUC) was 0.757 for the training set and 0.754 for the validation set. The calibration curve for determining the probability of survival indicated that the model prediction results were in good agreement with the actual observations. According to LASSO-COX risk regression, age, surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy were independent risk factors, while gender, marriage, race, laterality, primary site, tumor size and the number of tumor were poorly correlated with patient survival.Conclusions The nomogram survival prediction model was successfully established, providing a concise and reliable survival prediction tool for patients with glioblastoma.

       

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