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    陈子钦, 刘正阳, 李伟旗, 闫昊, 章龙珍. 乳腺癌患者蒽环类药物所致心脏毒性影响因素分析及预测模型构建[J]. 徐州医科大学学报, 2024, 44(6): 391-397. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2024.06.001
    引用本文: 陈子钦, 刘正阳, 李伟旗, 闫昊, 章龙珍. 乳腺癌患者蒽环类药物所致心脏毒性影响因素分析及预测模型构建[J]. 徐州医科大学学报, 2024, 44(6): 391-397. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2024.06.001
    CHEN Ziqin, LIU Zhengyang, LI Weiqi, YAN Hao, ZHANG Longzhen. Influencing factor analysis and prediction model construction for anthracycline-related cardiotoxicity in breast cancer patients[J]. Journal of Xuzhou Medical University, 2024, 44(6): 391-397. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2024.06.001
    Citation: CHEN Ziqin, LIU Zhengyang, LI Weiqi, YAN Hao, ZHANG Longzhen. Influencing factor analysis and prediction model construction for anthracycline-related cardiotoxicity in breast cancer patients[J]. Journal of Xuzhou Medical University, 2024, 44(6): 391-397. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2024.06.001

    乳腺癌患者蒽环类药物所致心脏毒性影响因素分析及预测模型构建

    Influencing factor analysis and prediction model construction for anthracycline-related cardiotoxicity in breast cancer patients

    • 摘要: 目的 探讨乳腺癌患者蒽环类药物所致心脏毒性(ACT)的影响因素,并构建列线图预测模型,为相关患者的预测和诊治提供依据。方法 选取2018年1月—2023年1月于徐州医科大学附属医院接受蒽环类药物化疗的乳腺癌患者315例,收集临床资料进行回顾性分析。根据是否发生ACT,将其分为ACT组(n=97)和无ACT组(n=218)。采用多因素logistic回归分析乳腺癌患者发生ACT的影响因素,并构建列线图预测模型。结果 2组患者在年龄、体重指数(BMI)、高血压病史、高血脂病史、心肌酶、心电图、糖尿病病史、联用心脏保护剂右丙亚胺、蒽环类累计剂量比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素logistic回归分析显示,年龄、BMI、联用右丙亚胺、心电图和心肌酶是乳腺癌患者发生ACT的影响因素。列线图模型验证结果显示,受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积为0.862(95%CI: 0.820~0.904),敏感度为0.825,特异度为0.725,说明该模型具有良好的区分能力。Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验结果显示, χ2=4.814,P=0.683,提示本研究数据与真实数据拟合度良好。决策曲线分析显示,该模型具有良好的临床效益。结论 年龄≥55岁、肥胖(BMI≥24 kg/m2)、化疗期间心肌酶和心电图异常是乳腺癌患者发生ACT的危险因素,联用右丙亚胺是发生ACT的保护因素。基于上述因素构建的列线图模型具有良好的区分度和准确性。

       

      Abstract: Objective To investigate the influencing factors of anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity (ACT) in breast cancer patients, and to construct a nomogram prediction model, in order to provide evidence for the prediction and diagnosis of related patients. Methods A total of 315 breast cancer patients receiving anthracycline chemotherapy in the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from January 2018 to January 2023 were selected and their clinical data were collected for retrospective analysis. According to the presence of ACT, they were divided into two groups: an ACT group (n=97) and a non-ACT group (n=218). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the influencing factors for the occurrence of ACT in breast cancer patients, and a nomogram prediction model was constructed. Results The two groups were compared for age,body mass index (BMI),hypertension history, hyperlipidemia history, myocardiac enzymes, electrocardiogram, diabetes mellitus history, the co-administration of cardioprotective agent dexrazoxane, and the cumulative dose of anthracyclines,with statistical differences (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that age, BMI, dexrazoxane co-administration, electrocardiograms and myocardiac enzymes were the influencing factors for the occurrence of ACT. Based on the above factors, the nomogram prediction model was constructed. The model validation results showed that the area under of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.862 (95% CI: 0.820-0.904), with a sensitivity of 0.825, and a specificity of 0.725, which indicated that the model had good discriminatory ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed that χ2=4.814, P=0.683, which indicated that the data of the present study fit well with the real data. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model had good clinical benefits. Conclusions Age≥55 years,obesity (BMI≥24 kg/m2),abnormal eletrocardiograms and myocardiac enzymes during chemotherapy are risk factors for the development of ACT in breast cancer patients. Failure to dexrazoxane co-administration is the protective factor for the development of ACT. The constructed nomogram prediction model has good differentiation and accuracy.

       

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