Construction and validation of a prediction model for positive risk of fecal Helicobacter pylori based on PCR fluorescent probe method

Objective To investigate the correlation between Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection and lifestyle factors through conducting fecal HP screening and collecting lifestyle data in a community population, in order to provide clinical evidence for early HP screening and treatment. Methods A total of 364 community individuals who underwent health check-up at Wenwo Community Health Service Center in Tongshan District, Xuzhou, between March and June 2024, were selected. According to fecal HP test results, there were 129 positive patients and 235 negative patients, who were then divided into the training set and the validation set at a ratio of 8∶2. Binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the correlation between lifestyle habits, chronic disease history, clinical symptoms, and HP positivity. Meanwhile, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Results Multivariate analysis indicated statistical differences in obesity, smoking, alcohol consumption, hyperlipidemia history, and type 2 diabetes (OR>1, P<0.05). These variables were included for constructing the binary logistic regression model. The area under curve (AUC) was 0.806 for the training set, and 0.881 for the validation set (both>0.7), indicating certain predictive value. Conclusions Obesity, smoking, alcohol consumption, hyperlipidemia, and type 2 diabetes are pathogenic factors for HP infection, with certain predictive value for positive HP outcomes.