Construction and validation of a predictive model for recurrence after synchronous radiotherapy for locally advanced squamous esophageal cancer

LIU Wanming; WANG Tingting; ZHANG Nie; ZHANG Longzhen

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2022.12.006

Journal of Xuzhou Medical University > 2022 > 42(12): 889-895. > DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2022.12.006

LIU Wanming, WANG Tingting, ZHANG Nie, ZHANG Longzhen. Construction and validation of a predictive model for recurrence after synchronous radiotherapy for locally advanced squamous esophageal cancer[J]. Journal of Xuzhou Medical University, 2022, 42(12): 889-895. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-3882.2022.12.006

Citation:

PDF (1369 KB)

Construction and validation of a predictive model for recurrence after synchronous radiotherapy for locally advanced squamous esophageal cancer

1. The First School of Clinical Medicine, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221002, China;
2. Department of Radiotherapy, the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221002

More Information

Received Date: October 24, 2022
Revised Date: December 07, 2022

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To discuss the risk factors affecting recurrence within 3 years after synchronous radiotherapy for locally advanced esophageal squamous carcinoma, and construct and validate a recurrence prediction risk model. Methods A total of 156 patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous carcinoma who were admitted to Department of Radiotherapy, the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from June 2017 to June 2019, were enrolled and their clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. Then, 156 patients were randomly divided into two groups: a training cohort (n=109) and a testing cohort (n=47) in the ratio of 7∶3. The risk factors for recurrence within 3 years in the training cohort were analyzed. A nomogram was constructed, and the predictive efficacy of the model was validated by calibration curves and clinical decision curves in the training and testing cohorts. Results Among the 156 patients, 87 patients were histologically or imaging confirmed with recurrence within 3 years, with a recurrence rate of 55.77%. According to univariate and multifactorial analyses, systemic immune inflammation index (SII)≥643.8, prognostic nutritional index (PNI)<48.05, lymph node metastasis, and poor differentiation were independent risk factors for recurrence within 3 years for locally advanced squamous esophageal cancer after synchronous radiotherapy (P<0.05), and these risk factors were included in the prediction model. The calibration curve showed a good fit between prediction and reality, and the clinical decision curve suggested that most patients were clinically benefited. Conclusions SII and PNI are the predictive factor for recurrence within 3 years after simultaneous radiotherapy for esophageal cancer. The nomogram model can provide evidence for clinicians to comprehensively assess disease and develop individualized follow-up monitoring programs.

FullText(HTML)

References (22)

References

[1]	Bray F,Ferlay J,Soerjomataram I,et al.Global cancer statistics 2018:GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries[J].CA Cancer J Clin,2018,68(6):394-424.
[2]	Versteijne E,van Laarhoven HWM,van Hooft JE,et al.Definitive chemoradiation for patients with inoperable and/or unresectable esophageal cancer:locoregional recurrence pattern[J].Dis Esophagus,2015,28(5):453-459.
[3]	Arnold M,Ferlay J,van Berge Henegouwen MI,et al.Global burden of oesophageal and gastric cancer by histology and subsite in 2018[J].Gut,2020,69(9):1564-1571.
[4]	Feng JF,Chen S,Yang X.Systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) is a useful prognostic indicator for patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus[J/OL].Medicine,2017,96(4):e5886.
[5]	Liao GX,Zhao ZH,Yang HL,et al.Can prognostic nutritional index be a prediction factor in esophageal cancer? :a meta-analysis[J].Nutr Cancer,2020,72(2):187-193.
[6]	Wen YL,Yang JW,Han XY.Fibrinogen-to-albumin ratio is associated with all-cause mortality in cancer patients[J].Int J Gen Med,2021,14:4867-4875.
[7]	Ajani JA,D'Amico TA,Bentrem DJ,et al.Esophageal and esophagogastric junction cancers,version 2.2019,NCCN clinical practice guidelines in oncology[J].J Natl Compr Canc Netw,2019,17(7):855-883.
[8]	Jinushi M.Yin and Yang of tumor inflammation:how innate immune suppressors shape the tumor microenvironments[J].Int J Cancer,2014,135(6):1277-1285.
[9]	张立志,刘平,吉慧军,等.全身免疫炎症指数(SII)对胶质瘤患者临床预后的影响及与p53突变的关系[J].现代肿瘤医学,2018,26(24):3937-3943.
[10]	彭福,骆鹏飞,李雷.乳腺癌病人术前炎性指标与临床病理特征的相关性分析[J].蚌埠医学院学报,2021,46(9):1208-1211,1215.
[11]	De Larco JE,Wuertz BRK,Furcht LT.The potential role of neutrophils in promoting the metastatic phenotype of tumors releasing interleukin-8[J].Clin Cancer Res,2004,10(15):4895-4900.
[12]	Chen DS,Mellman I.Oncology meets immunology:the cancer-immunity cycle[J].Immunity,2013,39(1):1-10.
[13]	Labelle M,Begum S,Hynes RO.Direct signaling between platelets and cancer cells induces an epithelial-mesenchymal-like transition and promotes metastasis[J].Cancer Cell,2011,20(5):576-590.
[14]	Onodera T,Goseki N,Kosaki G.Prognostic nutritional index in gastrointestinal surgery of malnourished cancer patients[J].Nihon Geka Gakkai Zasshi,1984,85(9):1001-1005.
[15]	Grivennikov SI,Greten FR,Karin M.Immunity,inflammation,and cancer[J].Cell,2010,140(6):883-899.
[16]	Nakatani M,Migita K,Matsumoto S,et al.Prognostic significance of the prognostic nutritional index in esophageal cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy[J].Dis Esophagus,2017,30(8):1-7.
[17]	Xu HR,Feng HJ,Zhang WH,et al.Prediction of immune-related adverse events in non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors based on clinical and hematological markers:real-world evidence[J].Exp Cell Res,2022,416(1):113157.
[18]	Hoppe B.Fibrinogen and factor XIII at the intersection of coagulation,fibrinolysis and inflammation[J].Thromb Haemost,2014,112(4):649-658.
[19]	Repetto O,De Re V.Coagulation and fibrinolysis in gastric cancer[J].Ann N Y Acad Sci,2017,1404(1):27-48.
[20]	Matsumoto S,Takayama T,Wakatsuki K,et al.Predicting early cancer-related deaths after curative esophagectomy for esophageal cancer[J].Am Surg,2013,79(5):528-533.
[21]	Davies AR,Pillai A,Sinha P,et al.Factors associated with early recurrence and death after esophagectomy for cancer[J].J Surg Oncol,2014,109(5):459-464.
[22]	胡锋超,安秀英,张晶,等. CD137L、VEGF和E-cad在食管鳞癌组织中的表达及其与淋巴结转移、预后的相关性[J].中国急救复苏与灾害医学杂志,2021,16(8):902-906.

Cited By

Get Citation

PDF

XML

Article views (2043) PDF downloads (618)

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Abstract

References

Construction and validation of a predictive model for recurrence after synchronous radiotherapy for locally advanced squamous esophageal cancer

Abstract

References

Catalog

Export File

Citation

Format

Content